The world's population of seven billion is set to rise to at least 10 billion by 2100, but could top 15 billion if birth rates are just slightly higher than expected, the United Nations said on Wednesday.
In a report ahead of ceremonies on October 31 to mark the seven billionth human alive today, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) warned demographic pressure posed mighty challenges for easing poverty and conserving the environment.
New estimates see a global human tally of 9.3 billion at 2050, an increase over earlier figures, and more than 10 billion by century's end, UNFPA said.
But, it added, "with only a small variation in fertility, particularly in the most populous countries, the total could be higher: 10.6 billion people could be living on Earth by 2050 and more than 15 billion in 2100."
The 126-page document, "The State of the World Population 2011", highlights a surge that began with the post-World War II baby boom -- a numbers "bulge" that shows up in following generations as they in turn grow up and have children.
In contrast, prosperity, better education and access to contraception have slashed the global fertility rate to the point that some rich countries have to address a looming population fall.
Over the past six decades, fertility has declined from a statistical average of 6.0 children per women to about 2.5 today, varying from 1.7 in the most advanced economies to 4.2 in the least developed nations.
Even so, 80 million people each year are added to the world's population. People under 25 comprise 43 percent of the total.
"Our record population can be viewed in many ways as a success for humanity -- people are living longer, healthier lives," said Babatunde Osotimehin, UNFPA's executive director.
"How did we become so many? How large a number can our Earth sustain?" he asked.
"These are important questions, but perhaps not the right ones for our times. When we look only at the big number, we risk being overwhelmed and losing sight of new opportunities to make life better for everyone in the future."
The report highlighted these challenges:
- HELPING YOUTH: Having large numbers of young adults offers many poor countries the hope of rising from poverty.
But, warns the UNFPA, "this opportunity of a 'demographic dividend' is a fleeting moment that must be claimed quickly or lost." Finding jobs for this swelling sea of youngsters is essential.
The report notably quotes from a report by the UN's International Labour Organisation (ILO) which suggests the 23.4-percent youth unemployment in the Arab world was a major contributor to the uprisings there.
- GREEN WORRIES: The report cites environmental problems that are already pressing and set to intensify as demand grows for food, energy and homes.
Referring to a yardstick of sustainability used by the environmental thinktank Global Footprint Network, the report said it now takes the Earth 18 months to regenerate the natural resources that we use in a year.
"Climate change and rapid population growth are among the many factors contributing to the current drought and famine in the Horn of Africa, which has affected more than 12 million people," it says.
Future concerns focus especially on water stress. "Analysis suggests that the world will face a 40-percent global shortfall (in water) between forecast demand and available supply by 2030," says the report, citing Egypt -- hugely dependent on the Nile -- as a particular example.
- CITY FUTURES: The balance between rural and urban populations "has tipped irreversibly" towards cities in today's world of seven billion. The biggest urban agglomeration, as defined by the UNFPA, is Tokyo, with 36.7 million people, followed by Delhi, with 22 million, Sao Paulo, 20 million and Mumbai, with 20 million.
As the world's population expands, better urban planning, with closer involvement of residents, will be essential. Adequate housing, sanitation and green spaces should be incorporated in the shaping of cities rather than ad-hoc growth that leads to shanty towns.
- IMMIGRATION: In rich countries where populations are becoming top-heavy with the elderly, the task will be to meet growing demands for labour. Immigration, one of the options, needs to be orderly and managed so that migrants are better integrated and protected.
- FAMILY PLANNING: Dozens of countries are lagging in achieving the UN's Millennium Development Goal of providing universal access to reproductive health, said the report.
"A stable population is a sine qua non for accelerated, planned economic growth and development," said Osotimehin.
WE ARE ALL ONE FAMILY.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Vitamin E "ups prostate cancer risk
US researchers warned Tuesday of an alarming link between vitamin E supplements and a 17 per cent increased risk of prostate cancer, describing the findings as an "important public health concern".
Ten years after the start of a randomised trial of more than 35,000 men, researchers discovered the spike in prostate cancer among those assigned to take vitamin E rather than selenium or a placebo.
"Dietary supplementation with vitamin E significantly increased the risk of prostate cancer among healthy men," said the study in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Selenium, a trace mineral found in foods like Brazil nuts, tuna and beef, is often deficient in areas such as China and Russia where it is lacking in the soil.
The study was launched based on previous research that had suggested that selenium or vitamin E might reduce the risk of developing prostate cancer.
The latest data emerged three years after a preliminary study of the findings, published in 2008, showed a slightly higher but statistically insignificant risk of prostate cancer among those taking vitamin E.
However, since the risk was approaching statistical significance, a safety committee called for a halt to the randomised Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico in 2008.
A longer-term follow up, concluded in July of this year, has revealed the higher cancer incidence in men assigned to the vitamin E portion of the trial.
"Based on these results and the results of large cardiovascular studies using vitamin E, there is no reason for men in the general population to take the dose of vitamin E used in SELECT as the supplements have shown no benefit and some very real risks," said Eric Klein, a study co-chair for SELECT, and a physician at the Cleveland Clinic.
"For now, men who were part of SELECT should continue to see their primary care physician or urologist and bring these results to their attention for further consideration."
The study began in 2001 and broke participants into four groups: one would receive selenium, another would get 400 international units of daily vitamin E, another group would take both, and the fourth was prescribed a placebo.
A total of 620 men in the vitamin E group developed prostate cancer, as did 555 in the combined selenium and vitamin E group.
Those taking selenium only saw 575 develop prostate cancer, compared to 529 on the sugar pill.
"The observed 17 per cent increase in prostate cancer incidence demonstrates the potential for seemingly innocuous yet biologically active substances such as vitamins to cause harm," said the study.
Men entering the trial had no signs of prostate cancer and were considered to exhibit average risk of developing the disease, which is the second most common cancer among US men, after skin cancer.
According to the American Cancer Society, 240,890 new cases of prostate cancer will be diagnosed in 2011 and 33,720 men will die of prostate cancer in the United States.
The study found no biological explanation for why vitamin E was driving the risk higher, but warned that the effects of the pills may continue even after the patient stops taking them.
"The fact that the increased risk of prostate cancer in the vitamin E group of participants in SELECT was only apparent after extended follow-up... suggests that health effects from these agents may continue even after the intervention is stopped," it said.
The findings also "underscore the need for consumers to be sceptical of health claims for unregulated over-the-counter products in the absence of strong evidence of benefit demonstrated in clinical trials," it said.
The trial was funded by the National Cancer Institute, the National Centre for Complementary and Alternative Medicine, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the National Institute of Aging and the National Eye Institute.
Ten years after the start of a randomised trial of more than 35,000 men, researchers discovered the spike in prostate cancer among those assigned to take vitamin E rather than selenium or a placebo.
"Dietary supplementation with vitamin E significantly increased the risk of prostate cancer among healthy men," said the study in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Selenium, a trace mineral found in foods like Brazil nuts, tuna and beef, is often deficient in areas such as China and Russia where it is lacking in the soil.
The study was launched based on previous research that had suggested that selenium or vitamin E might reduce the risk of developing prostate cancer.
The latest data emerged three years after a preliminary study of the findings, published in 2008, showed a slightly higher but statistically insignificant risk of prostate cancer among those taking vitamin E.
However, since the risk was approaching statistical significance, a safety committee called for a halt to the randomised Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial (SELECT) in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico in 2008.
A longer-term follow up, concluded in July of this year, has revealed the higher cancer incidence in men assigned to the vitamin E portion of the trial.
"Based on these results and the results of large cardiovascular studies using vitamin E, there is no reason for men in the general population to take the dose of vitamin E used in SELECT as the supplements have shown no benefit and some very real risks," said Eric Klein, a study co-chair for SELECT, and a physician at the Cleveland Clinic.
"For now, men who were part of SELECT should continue to see their primary care physician or urologist and bring these results to their attention for further consideration."
The study began in 2001 and broke participants into four groups: one would receive selenium, another would get 400 international units of daily vitamin E, another group would take both, and the fourth was prescribed a placebo.
A total of 620 men in the vitamin E group developed prostate cancer, as did 555 in the combined selenium and vitamin E group.
Those taking selenium only saw 575 develop prostate cancer, compared to 529 on the sugar pill.
"The observed 17 per cent increase in prostate cancer incidence demonstrates the potential for seemingly innocuous yet biologically active substances such as vitamins to cause harm," said the study.
Men entering the trial had no signs of prostate cancer and were considered to exhibit average risk of developing the disease, which is the second most common cancer among US men, after skin cancer.
According to the American Cancer Society, 240,890 new cases of prostate cancer will be diagnosed in 2011 and 33,720 men will die of prostate cancer in the United States.
The study found no biological explanation for why vitamin E was driving the risk higher, but warned that the effects of the pills may continue even after the patient stops taking them.
"The fact that the increased risk of prostate cancer in the vitamin E group of participants in SELECT was only apparent after extended follow-up... suggests that health effects from these agents may continue even after the intervention is stopped," it said.
The findings also "underscore the need for consumers to be sceptical of health claims for unregulated over-the-counter products in the absence of strong evidence of benefit demonstrated in clinical trials," it said.
The trial was funded by the National Cancer Institute, the National Centre for Complementary and Alternative Medicine, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the National Institute of Aging and the National Eye Institute.
Monday, October 10, 2011
World population expected to reach 10.1 billion in 2100
World population levels are projected to reach 10.1 billion at the end of the century, according to a new UN report released on Tuesday.
According to the report, titled "2010 Revision of World Population Prospects," the bulk of the expected increase in global population is projected to come from 58 "high-fertility countries" in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. The report was prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) .
Fertility is "the main driver of population rates in the world, " Hania Zlotnik, director of the DESA's Population Division, told reporters here.
"The world hasn't collapsed by adding so many people, but what is important is that most of these people are being added in the poorest countries of the world," said Zlotnik.
Based on the medium projection, the number of people in the world -- currently close to 7 billion -- should pass 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion by 2041 and then 10 billion at some point after 2081, the report said.
Between 2011 and 2100, the population of high-fertility countries is expected to more than triple in size, going from 1.2 billion to 4.2 billion, the report noted. During the same period, the report projected, the population of low-fertility countries will decline by around 20 percent -- from 2.9 billion to 2.4 billion.
According to the report, titled "2010 Revision of World Population Prospects," the bulk of the expected increase in global population is projected to come from 58 "high-fertility countries" in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. The report was prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) .
Fertility is "the main driver of population rates in the world, " Hania Zlotnik, director of the DESA's Population Division, told reporters here.
"The world hasn't collapsed by adding so many people, but what is important is that most of these people are being added in the poorest countries of the world," said Zlotnik.
Based on the medium projection, the number of people in the world -- currently close to 7 billion -- should pass 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion by 2041 and then 10 billion at some point after 2081, the report said.
Between 2011 and 2100, the population of high-fertility countries is expected to more than triple in size, going from 1.2 billion to 4.2 billion, the report noted. During the same period, the report projected, the population of low-fertility countries will decline by around 20 percent -- from 2.9 billion to 2.4 billion.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Early risers get ahead of the game
Those who fight the urge to ignore the alarm clock complete morning chores faster, pack their children off to school earlier and thrive in the workplace, researchers concluded.
But people who can't resist a lie in have a higher chance of feeling depressed or stressed and becoming overweight.
Researchers questioned 1,068 adults about their levels of happiness and anxiety, their physical health and their eating and sleeping habits in an online survey.
They found that "morning people" were out of bed by 6.58am on average, while "evening people" waited until 8.54am to start their day.
During weekends, both groups enjoyed about an extra hour under the covers, with early risers waiting until 7.47am to get up and night owls lying in until 10.09am.
Dr Joerg Huber of Roehampton University said: "There are morning people and evening people, and morning people tend to be healthier and happier as well as having lower body mass indices."
The reason early risers do better in life could be down to the fact that getting the chores out of the way and the children out of bed in good time helps people fit in better with hectic modern life, he told a British Psychological Society conference.
"Maybe morning types are just better suited to this industrial world we are in than late risers", he said.
The differences between the two groups are small and there can be certain advantages to being an evening person, for example in jobs that require you to work late, he added.
The survey also found that people who watch a lot of television are more likely to skip breakfast.
This could be because they snack more while spending their evening on the sofa and are less hungry in the morning as a result, Dr Huber said.
But people who can't resist a lie in have a higher chance of feeling depressed or stressed and becoming overweight.
Researchers questioned 1,068 adults about their levels of happiness and anxiety, their physical health and their eating and sleeping habits in an online survey.
They found that "morning people" were out of bed by 6.58am on average, while "evening people" waited until 8.54am to start their day.
During weekends, both groups enjoyed about an extra hour under the covers, with early risers waiting until 7.47am to get up and night owls lying in until 10.09am.
Dr Joerg Huber of Roehampton University said: "There are morning people and evening people, and morning people tend to be healthier and happier as well as having lower body mass indices."
The reason early risers do better in life could be down to the fact that getting the chores out of the way and the children out of bed in good time helps people fit in better with hectic modern life, he told a British Psychological Society conference.
"Maybe morning types are just better suited to this industrial world we are in than late risers", he said.
The differences between the two groups are small and there can be certain advantages to being an evening person, for example in jobs that require you to work late, he added.
The survey also found that people who watch a lot of television are more likely to skip breakfast.
This could be because they snack more while spending their evening on the sofa and are less hungry in the morning as a result, Dr Huber said.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Colon cancer advances faster in men
Men with colon cancer tend to have more advanced tumors than women of the same age, said a study out Tuesday that suggested screening guidelines may need to be adjusted for sex and age.
Currently, men and women age 50 and older are urged to get a colonoscopy to screen for growths or polyps that could form into tumors. Colorectal cancer is the fourth leading cancer killer worldwide, taking 610,000 lives per year.
The study in the Journal of the American Medical Association examined 44,350 participants in a national screening colonoscopy program from 2007 to 2010 in Austria.
The screenings look for adenomas, which are polyps or benign tumors as well as for particularly advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer.
The analysis found "a significantly higher rate of these lesions among men compared with women in all age groups, suggesting that male sex constitutes an independent risk factor for colorectal carcinoma," according to the study.
For instance, five percent of men age 50-54 had advanced adenomas compared to just 2.9 percent of women.
The rate of colorectal cancer in 55-59-year-old men (1.3 percent) was about the same as in women a decade older (65-69-year-old women were diagnosed at a rate of 1.2 percent).
The prevalence of colorectal cancer overall was twice as high among men, at 1.5 percent, compared to 0.7 percent in women.
The researchers noted that "deciding whether to adjust the age at which screening begins also requires considering whether the recommended age for women should be older or the recommended age for men younger."
However, the study stopped short of saying what that new age should be, saying further studies "are needed to demonstrate the relative clinical effectiveness of screening at different ages."
Currently, men and women age 50 and older are urged to get a colonoscopy to screen for growths or polyps that could form into tumors. Colorectal cancer is the fourth leading cancer killer worldwide, taking 610,000 lives per year.
The study in the Journal of the American Medical Association examined 44,350 participants in a national screening colonoscopy program from 2007 to 2010 in Austria.
The screenings look for adenomas, which are polyps or benign tumors as well as for particularly advanced adenomas and colorectal cancer.
The analysis found "a significantly higher rate of these lesions among men compared with women in all age groups, suggesting that male sex constitutes an independent risk factor for colorectal carcinoma," according to the study.
For instance, five percent of men age 50-54 had advanced adenomas compared to just 2.9 percent of women.
The rate of colorectal cancer in 55-59-year-old men (1.3 percent) was about the same as in women a decade older (65-69-year-old women were diagnosed at a rate of 1.2 percent).
The prevalence of colorectal cancer overall was twice as high among men, at 1.5 percent, compared to 0.7 percent in women.
The researchers noted that "deciding whether to adjust the age at which screening begins also requires considering whether the recommended age for women should be older or the recommended age for men younger."
However, the study stopped short of saying what that new age should be, saying further studies "are needed to demonstrate the relative clinical effectiveness of screening at different ages."
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