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Monday, January 25, 2010

S'pore workers need to raise productivity, improve capabilities

Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong has said Singapore's workforce needs to raise productivity and improve capabilities to spur economic growth.

Mr Goh said these two issues will be addressed by the Economic Strategies Committee when it releases its report on February 1. He was speaking on the sidelines of a community event on Sunday.

Mr Goh was at his Marine Parade ward, giving out hongbaos to welfare recipients.

Even as the government is trying to help those who are less well-off, Mr Goh said Singaporeans have to be prepared for slower economic growth.

Singapore's economy grew by five per cent on average per year over the last decade. But the growth came mainly from expanding the foreign workforce.

Mr Goh noted that Singapore's productivity increased by only one per cent a year in the same period.

As the government is committed to cut the growth of foreign workforce, Mr Goh said Singapore will need to double its productivity to achieve a three to four per cent growth every year. But he cautioned that this will not be easy.

He said: "This is the trade-off. If you want to grow fast, it means a larger foreign workforce, which I think is not advisable because already we have too huge a presence of a foreign workforce in Singapore and we are not emphasizing productivity."

Mr Goh suggested that Singapore's services industry can look to its European counterparts on how to improve productivity levels.

He said: "If you have been to Europe, you find that we have one person serving many people. Here, we have many people serving one customer.

"When I first went to Brussels, I was very impressed by just one lady ... serving about 10 customers. Her business had just started. She was her own cashier, she was the coffeemaker, she was the cleaner, everything, just one person."

Mr Goh also responded to reporters on the news that more young people are joining the opposition parties.

He said: "If they wish to choose to contest against us - they are decent people with good views - I think it is to be welcomed. Of course, I will be happier they would join us, but let it be.

"We have been interviewing people. But frankly speaking, don't stir up any excitement about election. I think we are still concentrating on economic recovery."

Mr Goh added that the People's Action Party (PAP) has also been going out to attract younger candidates, including more women.

PM Lee maps out 3 priorities for govt: economy, population, politics


Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday identified three areas of priority for the government: restructuring the economy, addressing the population shortfall and updating the political system.

In a wide-ranging speech to the annual Singapore Perspective Conference organised by the Institute of Policy Studies, Mr Lee said Singapore's economic policies must enable the country's economy to perform to its limits and help Singaporeans thrive in the new world.

He said the Economic Strategies Committee will publish its recommendations next week and the government will respond to them in the Budget.

On the population shortfall, Mr Lee said Singapore's birth rates are not improving despite the government's best efforts.

Last year, there were about 170 fewer live births than in 2008.

This would mean that the total fertility rate would have gone down further.

PM Lee stressed that while the decline could have been due to the global economic downturn, it was still a grave trend. If left unchecked, Singapore will face not just an ageing, but a shrinking population.

Therefore, he said the government needs to encourage Singaporeans to start families with parenthood benefits and other incentives.

However, he added that the country must also top up the population and talent pool with immigration in a measured and calibrated manner.

Turning to the subject of updating the political system, Mr Lee said that while having a sound system is essential, that in itself is not enough to produce political stability and good governance.

He said that the nation is still dependent on having the right people in charge and an able and committed team coming forward to lead the country.

The Prime Minister said a key task for his predecessors and himself has always been to identify promising people to form the next team.

He said good progress has been made in this area but he does not have a complete next team lined up in Cabinet yet.

He is confident that by the next general election, the People's Action Party (PAP) will field a team which will consist the core of the next generation leadership.

Mr Lee also stressed that leadership renewal will be a major issue in the next general election.

Countdown to Shanghai Expo

LESS than 100 days before the World Expo opens in Shanghai, armies of workers wearing yellow and orange hard-hats are buzzing around a huge muddy site where the pavilions are far from finished.

But officials say preparations are on track for the massive six-month event, which is due to bring at least 70 million visitors streaming into China's biggest city from May 1.

'We're confident as we've been working on this for eight years,' said Xu Bo, assistant commissioner general at the World Expo. 'Right now 90 per cent of the structural work is finished and now we're starting interior work.'

Less than two years after China successfully hosted the Beijing Olympics, Expo 2010 will offer the Asian giant a new opportunity to impress the world, and organisers promise the event will be record-breaking. The site is the biggest ever for an Expo and it will welcome a record 192 participating countries and 50 international organisations, along with the mammoth number of visitors, most of them Chinese.

'The Expo is a sign of power, and for us it's a very strong symbol,' Mr Xu said about the first Expo to be held in a developing country, funded by a budget of more than four billion dollars.

China has also allocated US$14 billion (S$19.6 billion) for new highways, subway lines, road repairs and the renovation of many districts in Shanghai - a figure that does not even include the expansion of the city's Pudong airport. 'Shanghai has become a permanent building site,' said Mr Xu.

Work smarter, harder

SINGAPOREANS have to work smarter and harder, and pick up new skills to keep the economy growing over the next decade, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong said on Sunday.

Given the Government's move to moderate the influx of foreign workers, the rate at which productivity is increased will have to double if economic growth is to hit 3 per cent to 4 per cent a year, he explained.

Raising productivity is one area that the Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) will address in its recommendations on Feb 1, he said.

The Government forecasts economic growth of 3 per cent to 5 per cent this year and on Saturday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong tempered expectations of an overly strong economic recovery.

Speaking on the sidelines of a community event on Sunday, Mr Goh noted that average annual economic growth was 5 per cent over the past 10 years. But productivity rose just 1 per cent a year on average.

This good growth came from an expanding labour force, of which foreigners constituted a large part. But reducing reliance on foreign workers meant Singapore had to double its productivity growth to 2 per cent, he said.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Is too much sitting as bad as too little exercise?

Sitting all day may significantly boost the risk of lifestyle-related disease even if one adds a regular dose of moderate or vigorous exercise, scientists said Tuesday.

The health benefits of pulse-quickening physical activity are beyond dispute - it helps ward off cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity, among other problems.

But recent scientific findings also suggest that prolonged bouts of immobility while resting on one's rear end may be independently linked to these same conditions.

"Sedentary time should be defined as muscular inactivity rather than the absence of exercise," concluded a team of Swedish researchers.

"We need to consider that we are dealing with two distinct behaviours and their effects," they reported in the British Journal of Sports Medicine.

Led by Elin Ekblom-Bak of the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, the scientists proposed a new "paradigm of inactivity physiology," and urged fellow researchers to rethink the definition of a sedentary lifestyle.

They point to a recent study of Australian adults showing that each daily one-hour increase in sitting time while watching television upped the rate of metabolic syndrome in women by 26 per cent - regardless of the amount of moderate-to-intensive exercise performed.

Thirty minutes of daily physical exercise decreased the risk by about the same percentage, suggesting that being a couch potato can cancel out the benefits of hitting treadmill or biking, for example.

Metabolic syndrome is defined as the presence of three or more factors including high blood pressure, abdominal obesity, high cholesterol or insulin resistance.

New research is required to see if there is a causal link between being sedentary and these conditions and, if so, how it works, the researchers said.

One candidate is lipoprotein lipase, or LPL, an enzyme that plays a crucial role in breaking down fat within the body into useable forms.

Recent research has shown that LPL activity was significantly lower in rats with restrained muscle activity - as low as one tenth of the levels of rats allowed to walk about.

The LPL level during such activity "was not significantly different from that of rats exposed to higher levels of exercise," the scientists reported.

"This stresses the importance of local muscle contraction per se, rather than the intensity of the contraction."

These studies suggest that people should not only exercise frequently, but avoid sitting in one place for too long, they said.

Climbing stairs rather than using an elevator, taking five-minute breaks from a desk job, and walking when possible to do errands rather than driving were all recommended.

High levels of vitamin D cut risk of colon cancer: study

High levels of vitamin D are linked with a lower risk of colon cancer, according to a comparison of more than half a million Europeans, published online Friday by the British Medical Journal (BMJ).

Patients with the highest levels of vitamin D in their blood had a nearly 40 per cent lower risk of colorectal cancer compared to those with the lowest levels.

Vitamin D, derived mainly from sunlight but also found in foods, plays a key role in bone strength by increasing levels of calcium in the blood.

Whether it affects incidence of cancer has been hotly debated and the evidence is sketchy.

The paper draws on a very large study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) project, carried out in 10 Western European countries.

The authors sound a note of caution, saying it is unclear whether vitamin D supplements are any more effective than a balanced diet or getting regular exposure to sunlight.

Further work is needed, they add, to show whether the statistical link in this investigation is born out - and whether there could be any side effects from taking supplements or eating food fortified with vitamin D.

Smoking, obesity, a sedentary lifestyle, alcohol and eating red and processed meats have previously been established as factors in cancer of the colon and rectum.

Beijing per capita GDP tops US$10,000 in 2009

Average living standards in Beijing improved in 2009, with per capita gross domestic product topping US$10,000 for the first time, official data showed Friday.

The capital's economy grew 10.1 per cent on-year to 1.19 trillion yuan (US$174.3 billion) - exceeding the national GDP growth rate of 8.7 per cent - according to figures published on the Beijing Bureau of Statistics website.

This means per capita GDP for the city's 17.55 million residents reached 68,788 yuan, or US$10,077, the bureau said.

"The breakthrough is a milestone for Beijing," bureau deputy director Yu Xiuqin was quoted by state media as saying.

China's economy expanded by 8.7 per cent in 2009 after the government went on a four-trillion-yuan spending spree and bank lending nearly doubled from 2008, according to official data released Thursday.

Average annual disposable income for Beijing's city dwellers rose 8.1 per cent to US$3,915, while for rural residents around the capital, the figure reached US$1,755, up 11.5 per cent on the previous year.

Average living standards in Beijing still lag behind those in southern Guangzhou and Shanghai, where per capita GDP reached US$11,900 and US$10,529 respectively in 2008, according to latest official figures.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

China could overtake US

CHINA could overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy as early as 2020, a top business consultancy said on Thursday, underlining the 'seismic change' in global economic power.

PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) also said in its report that by 2030 the top 10 world economies could be China, followed by the United States, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Mexico, France and Britain.

The current 10 largest economies, according to 2008 data from the International Monetary Fund, are the United States, Japan, China, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Russia, Spain and Brazil.

'These projects suggest that China could be the largest economy in the world as early as 2020 and is likely to be some way ahead of the US by 2030,' John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PWC, said in the report.

'India could grow even faster than China after 2020, however, and will also move rapidly up the global GDP (gross domestic product) rankings' because of its younger and faster growing population as opposed to China, he added.

The report also pointed to an increasing share of global GDP taken up by China and India, compared to the United States and the European Union.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Asia set for 'Golden Age'

THE next 10 years might well be a 'golden age' for Asia, and the region could even become a new source of prosperity and stability for the world, predicted Dr Tony Tan, deputy chairman of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) on Monday.

That's because Asian countries - together with other emerging markets like Brazil and Russia - will power global growth in the coming years, and the world's investors will want to invest more in them. But success will depend on the skill of Asian policymakers in dealing with the economic risks ahead, he warned.

Dr Tan was crystal ball-gazing at an economic forum organised by Taiwan's prominent CommonWealth magazine in Taipei on Monday. In a keynote speech to 550 businessmen, he outlined how the world was likely to change after the global financial crisis.

The good news, he said, was that a global depression has been avoided. Global growth could hit 3 to 4 per cent this year, up from a contraction of nearly 2 per cent last year.

But growth is likely to be uneven, with the strongest showing coming from the emerging economies, especially Asia. He emphasised that the United States and key parts of Europe will take much longer than people think to recover.

'The current recovery could be strong, at least in the short-term, but even the most optimistic economist expects the bounce to be much weaker than what has occurred in the past. In the US, growth could be moderately strong in the first half of 2010 before slowing down to a below-average pace.'

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Beijing returns to bikes

At 6.30 every morning, you will find Mr Bian Ce pedalling for 10 minutes from his downtown Beijing home to the nearest subway station.

The 51-year-old then parks his rented bike at an assigned spot and rides the subway for the next 50 minutes to work.

The city of Beijing wants to persuade more of its residents to follow the example of commuters like Mr Bian in switching to the bicycle lane. Last month, the capital announced plans to bring back the bike. Part of its road map to a greener, less polluted city involves going big on renting out bicycles so that commuters will ride rather than drive.

The municipal government said in its latest Green Action Plan that it aims to have a network of 500 bike rental booths with 20,000 bikes by 2012. The plan did not provide details on how the government would achieve this.

There are currently an estimated 100 such booths located mainly in the heart of the sprawling city.

The one-time bicycle capital of the world, Beijing has ditched two-wheelers in favour of cars as its main mode of transport - in a single generation.

What price happiness?

ARE Singaporeans happier when they have lots more money?

A study shows that people who have a university or postgraduate qualification and earn $5,000 or more a month are the happiest.

But they are also dissatisfied with their achievements and enjoy life the least, compared with those who are less well-off.

Indeed, it is the Singaporeans earning less than $2,000 a month who enjoy life the most, concluded the three academics behind the study.

Senior lecturer Tambyah Siok Kuan, associate professor Tan Soo Jiuan and professorial fellow Kau Ah Keng - all from the National University of Singapore Business School - presented their findings in a book, The Wellbeing Of Singaporeans, which came out recently.

The survey in 2006 polled more than 1,000 people, aged 20 to 69.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Kickstart your health

1. Sleep your way to good health

According to sleep expert Dr Lim Li Ling, the director of Singapore General Hospital's sleep disorders unit, snooze time is crucial for rest and restoration of the body, and important for our emotional and physical well-being.

"Sleep deprivation is known to affect brain function and mood, as well as increase risk of heart disease, weight gain and depression; and, if extreme, shortens our life span," said Dr Lim. Most adults need seven to eight hours of sleep every day, she added.

"People who have enough sleep should feel refreshed and alert, and will not need additional daytime naps or crave sleep-ins on weekends."


2. Bone up with D

Up to half of Singaporeans may be lacking in Vitamin D, estimated Dr Manju Chandran, a consultant endocrinologist and director of the osteoporosis and bone metabolism unit at Singapore General Hospital. The vitamin is just as important as calcium in maintaining bone health.

Vitamin D deficiency may lead to osteoporosis, aka brittle bones disease. Low levels of the vitamin can make you grouchy, too. A Dutch study on over 1,000 seniors found that depressed people had 14 per cent less Vitamin D in their blood than happy people.

Just spending 15 to 20 minutes out in the sun each day will help you get a good dose of Vitamin D, recommended Dr Chandran.


3. Switch to whole-grains

Here's a reason why you should switch from refined carbs such as white rice and noodles to whole-grains: Consuming whole-grains has been shown to lower the risk of developing chronic illnesses such as heart diseases, diabetes and certain cancers.

Wholesome grains could help trim that expanding waistline, too, as they help you feel full faster and for longer periods, so you don't overeat, according to the Health Promotion Board (HPB).

The HPB recommends a daily intake of two to three servings of whole-grain foods - including brown rice, whole wheat spaghetti and wholemeal bread - as part of a daily five to seven servings of carbs.


4. Wash your hands

With HPB and help from a microbiologist, TODAY conducted an experiment at the height of the H1N1 outbreak last year and saw for ourselves the horrifying amount of bacteria - mould included - we picked up from the environment.

Proper hand washing, using good old soap and water, reduces the germ count by at least half. A thorough 30-second hand washing gets rid of about 99 per cent of the germs on your hands.


5. A walk in the park

The adage "no pain, no gain" may not apply when it comes to exercise.

Studies have shown that moderate-intensity exercises such as brisk walking, golf and Pilates may be as beneficial as vigorous workouts.

One of the largest studies done on exercise - polling over 2,000 chronic heart failure patients - published in the Journal of the American Medical Association last year, found that moderate exercise helped the patients feel better and reduced the rate of mortality.

Because moderate-intensity exercises are far less painful than strenuous workouts, you're more likely to "stick to it", said Mr Eric Ho, a senior physiotherapist at Singapore General Hospital.

The HPB recommends at least 30 minutes of moderate exercise five times a week.


6. Open wide and say ahh...

If you've neglected your mouth last year, it's time to make up for it.

Findings from a local oral care study, released by Johnson & Johnson last year, showed that only 21 to 35 per cent of the 150 Singaporeans surveyed rinsed and flossed daily.

Dentists TODAY spoke to said many people are unaware the mouth is really the window to one's health. Certain oral bacteria may even increase the risk of stroke and heart attacks, said Dr Chong Kai Chuan, clinical director of dental care group, Q&M Dental Institute.

On top of brushing twice daily, the Asia-Pacific Panel of Dental Experts recommended that adults should at least floss once a day and use an antibacterial mouth rinse twice daily.


7. Take your best shots

Older adults need to get shot.

Dr Lim Poh Lian, head of Traveller's Health and Vaccination Centre at Tan Tock Seng Hospital said that vaccinations help protect older adults - who generally have weaker immune systems - against infections. Plus, some vaccines have to be renewed regularly, such as the tetanus shot, which should be given every decade, she said.

Dr Lim recommended that adults over the age of 65 should get pneumococcal vaccination at least once and influenza vaccine yearly. Adults who have medical conditions including diabetes, lung, heart and kidney problems, or immunosuppression from medications, should also consider a pneumococcal and annual influenza shot.


8. Stress on fun

Keeping your emotional health in check is just as important. Dr Adrian Wang, a consultant psychiatrist at Gleneagles Medical Centre, advised setting aside half a day each week to do something that will "perk up your mood" no matter how busy you may be.

"It could be as simple as having coffee with your pals. Just tear yourself away from your daily grind, set aside the time and stick to it," he said.


9. Don't ignore health screenings

Chronic diseases such as high blood pressure or Type 2 diabetes often have little or no symptoms until it is too late, said Dr Karen Cheong, a family physician at National University Hospital Wellness Centre.

Staying current with health screenings can nip them in the bud early on. Diabetes screening should start from the age of 40, but earlier if there are other risk factors such as obesity. While at it, you should also check your cholesterol levels.

Some cancers can also be detected early. Dr Cheong recommended the following cancer screenings:

Women between 40 and 49 years of age should go for yearly mammograms, while those 50 years old and above should go for a mammogram once every two years.

Women over the age of 25 who have had sexual intercourse should have regular Pap smears.

For people with no family or personal history of colorectal cancer, screening should begin at 50 years of age.

Chronic Hepatitis B carriers are at increased risk of serious illnesses such as liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. A blood test can be done to screen for Hepatitis B infection. Hepatitis B carriers should see their doctors regularly to monitor their liver function every three to six months, and screen for liver cancer with a blood test and ultrasound of the liver.


10. Stub it out

If cancer, heart disease, premature ageing, infertility and bad breath aren't enough to stop you from smoking, consider this: The toxic effects of smoking can also rob you of your sight, according to Dr Srinivasan Sanjay, a registrar at Alexandra Hospital's department of ophthalmology and visual sciences (OVS).

The good news is, no matter how long you've had the unhealthy habit, your body reverses some damage within a day of stubbing out your last cigarette.

It's easy to blame our bad health on a lack of time and other external factors, but with these simple adjustments, you can have a healthy lifestyle - without going through the depths of hell.

US lags in math, science

PRESIDENT Barack Obama unveiled a US$250 million (S$350 million) plan on Wednesday to train 10,000 new math and science teachers, warning world powers like China were leaving the US education system behind.

'Make no mistake - our future is on the line. The nation that out-educates us today is going to out-compete us tomorrow,' Mr Obama told a group of award-winning teachers at the White House.

'One assessment shows that American 15-year-olds (are) now ranked 21st in science and 25th in math when compared to their peers around the world.' The president marveled at the enthusiasm for education he experienced during visits to South Korea and China in November, and said good teachers were crucial to the 21st Century US economy.

'Our future depends on reaffirming America's role as the world's engine of scientific discovery and technological innovation,' Mr Obama said. 'That leadership tomorrow depends on how we educate our students today, especially in math, science, technology and engineering.'

Mr Obama announced five new public-private partnerships with companies, universities and other institutions to train 10,000 new math and science teachers over the next five years, and to improve the skills of 100,000 more.

The combined commitment equals more than US$250 million in financial and in-kind support, to add to a US$260 million funding announcement in November.

Good demand for poly grads

DENTAL hygienist Tasha Cherie Bhullar applied for three jobs after graduating from her course at Nanyang Polytechnic in May last year.

Within two weeks, the 20-year-old Singaporean received 'two to three attractive offers with starting salaries of $2,500', she told my paper.

She now works at a dental clinic in the city area, with a basic pay of $2,500, excluding bonuses.

She was not worried that she would not get a job despite the recession, because there is a demand for dental hygenists here, she said.

Similarly, Mr Kuriakin Zeng, 24, who graduated from Singapore Polytechnic (SP) with a diploma in electronics, computer and communication engineering, received four job offers - without having applied for them.

He chose to work as a full-time research assistant in SP's Advanced Robotics and Intelligent Control Centre, because of his 'love for robotics', he said.

Monday, January 4, 2010

More rich Malaysians feel ‘wealthier’ in 2H 2009

MORE affluent Malaysians say they are wealthier now compared to six months ago, revealed the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker, a survey conducted by Nielsen for the HSBC Group.

The survey reported nearly a double increase (55%) in Malaysians’ net worth for the second half of the year compared to 35% earlier this year.

Regionally, mainland China (70%) leads the wealth surge in Asia with a reported rise in net worth as compared to 46% six months ago.

While 89% of Malaysian respondents gained wealth through employment, 56% of their income is spent on daily and recurring expenses with 26% committed towards savings, insurance and investment, an increase of 3% compared to the previous six months.

"Malaysia’s workforce is powering the country’s affluent who are fast becoming savvy about growing and managing their newly-earned wealth," said HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad personal financial services general manager Lim Eng Seong (pix).

"Riding on Asia’s recovery and improved market sentiment, the affluent in the country are regaining their confidence as investors are providing momentum towards a more robust wealth management market in Malaysia," said Lim.

According to the survey, 50% of Malaysian respondents said they were willing to increase their investments with half the respondents planning to invest in direct stocks and another half in unit trusts.

Most of the respondents are moderate risk takers and will not change their risk appetite in the next six months.

In asset holding, most respondents preferred savings and unit trust (73%), properties (65%) and life insurance (61%).

While the majority of Asian respondents felt that Greater China is the top potential investment market, about 47% of Malaysian respondents felt that Asia Pacific was a better option and 35% have no plans to invest in overseas funds or equities.

About 62% of Malaysian respondents said they are most likely to make a new investment, increase investment or re-allocate funds with extra income and, according to the survey’s investment risk index, most Malaysians are leaning towards more secure long-term investment products.

Lim said the growing affluence is the key driver for investment activity and diversification of asset holdings. "Whilst market sentiment will continue to remain an important driver, other factors will influence the psyche of the affluent Malaysian investor," he said.

He said the survey shows that advice from independent financial advisers (53%), financial media (40%), friends (29%), banks (28%) and family (27%) will play a key role in shaping their investment portfolio.

"Affluent Malaysians will increasingly become sophisticated investors as they combine self-knowledge with professional advice. Asia Pacific and Greater China are the most attractive markets for many affluent Asians suggesting that wealth created in Asia will continue to be reinvested within the region," said Lim.

The survey also showed that about 5% of Malaysian respondents are less cautious and less than half (38%) are choosing to maintain their spending habits. Also, more Malaysians (44%) prefer to spend on dining out, entertainment and hobbies with 40% on travel and 36% on property.

Meanwhile, 30% of Malaysian respondents are looking to live in Australia or New Zealand, 18% in Singapore followed by 10% in United States but more than half (52%) have no plans to live abroad.

"The Malaysian diaspora will evolve into a new movement, led by the affluent who not only work and study abroad, but who now explore new wealth opportunities. It will be led by those buying a second home abroad, expanding their businesses internationally or investing offshore in multiple locations," said Lim.

"International connectivity will become increasingly important as they integrate and manage their wealth across borders. HSBC Premier provides a truly global platform to support the growing international banking needs among Asia’s affluent," he added.

The survey, which gauges the views of people in the top 10 percentile of the population by income or liquid assets, was conducted across more than 1,700 affluent individuals aged 30 to 55 in eight key markets from September to October 2009. The first wave was conducted in April and May 2009.

H1N1 spreading to countryside

THE H1N1 strain of flu is rapidly spreading into China's vast countryside and there could be a spike in cases around the Lunar New Year period when millions head back to their home towns, the health ministry said.

The world's most populous nation has reported 648 deaths to date from what is often called swine flu, a tiny portion of the estimated 12,220 deaths around the globe, but has launched a massive vaccination campaign.

'Outbreaks in Beijing, Shanghai, other large cities and in schools have seen an obvious decline, but the virus continues to spread into villages and communities,' the Health Ministry said in a statement on its website (www.moh.gov.cn).

The government has been especially worried as the country heads into the depths of winter and ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in February, when millions of people travel back to their home towns - potentially taking flu with them. 'The risk of catching H1N1 will increase, and the virus prevention situation is still grim,' the ministry added.

'It is expected that for the period to come the virus will spread briskly.' China is also concerned that not enough people have been vaccinated against the virus, and that the flu will be hard to control once it reaches the poor and underdeveloped rural hinterland, where most the country's 1.3 billion people live.

The government is rushing to send medical equipment such as respirators to 17 central and western provinces to 'increase the overall ability to deal with severe cases', the ministry said. --